Obama versus Morales, Part II (see previous post)

So let’s go back to yesterday’s question: What is the significance of an Obama victory for future US-Bolivian relations?

Let’s say that Bolivia welcomes Obama’s victory but does not expect a turnaround of diplomatic fortunes in the US any time soon.

It is not that anyone doubts about the political honesty of the man himself; it is just that it is difficult to see how he can turn the super-tanker of a US foreign policy driven by imperialist ideological aims and capital-driven interests.

And things really are not very good at the moment between the two countries.

First there is an official Bolivian ideology that is not particularly warm to neoliberal dogma. At least in Bolivia they know why, as the socioeconomic effects of the structural adjustment and shock therapy of the1980s are yet to be forgotten.

One sometimes hopes the US did what it preaches to others to get a taste of the consequences of economic dogma. But when we have a republican president like George W. Bush nationalising half of all American mortgages and becoming, in effect, more ‘socialist’ than Morales himself, you know there is no chance of that.

So, instead, the new Bolivian constitution talks about the state’s responsibilities towards the well-being of its population; the recuperation of sovereignty in the management of the country’s natural resources; the principles of solidarity in its relations with other countries; and the pacifist aims of its military, ruling out any foreign intervention and forbidding foreign military (read US) installations in its soil.

None of these positions is likely to warm the country towards US interests in the region.

Secondly, we have a diplomatic row between Bolivia and the US that has been escalating since September, when the US ambassador to Bolivia was expelled from the country following evidence that he was supporting a right-wing, opposition-led civil coup backed by violence and civil unrest that ended with the massacre of dozens of peasants in Pando.

Things have escalated since then. The US immediately responded by expelling the Bolivian ambassador to the US. Then came accusations that USAID had been involved in intelligence gathering, supporting a disingenuous US foreign policy in the country. USAID have already left; the Peace Corps evacuated their staff following the ambassador’s removal and are yet to come back.

And the trouble between the two countries didn’t end there. First the US president decided to de-certify Bolivia’s anti-narcotics efforts in spite of evidence that the country’s cocaine seizures this year are the biggest ever. This was used as justification to bring to an end, for Bolivia alone, the special tax privileges given to Andean nations so that their products can reach US markets. Bolivia has responded to this by expelling the DEA, citing again that dark foreign policy aims were at play in some of the DEA’s activities.

So the diplomatic situation cannot possible get any worse between the two countries. But will it get better any time soon? Over to you, Mr president.